The United States is concerned about the potential for strategic instability with Russia following Ukraine’s UAV attacks on Moscow’s strategic radar stations dedicated to early warning of nuclear missiles.
Last week, Ukraine launched attacks on Russia’s strategic radar stations in Armavir, Krasnodar region, and a facility near Orsk, Orenburg province, causing some damage. This marks the first time Ukraine has used UAVs to strike a strategic facility specialized in early warning of nuclear weapons.
The Washington Post reported on May 29, citing an unnamed US official, that Washington is “concerned about recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s ballistic missile early warning facilities.” The official stated that the US had expressed its concerns to Ukraine regarding these actions.
“Those sites are not related to Russia’s operations against Ukraine,” the US official said. “They are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrence capabilities are being targeted, undermining their ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the US.”
In contrast, a Ukrainian official argued that Russia uses these radar stations to monitor Kyiv’s military activities, especially aerial assets like UAVs and missiles. The official revealed that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) carried out these attacks.
Ukraine faces a continuous threat as Russia has recently gained an advantage on the battlefield, partly due to sophisticated jamming capabilities that have rendered some US-supplied weapons, such as missiles and guided artillery, ineffective.
These capabilities also help Russia effectively monitor long-range weapons and UAVs provided to Ukraine by the UK and the US, which have previously caused significant damage to the Black Sea Fleet and their naval facilities in Crimea.
The Ukrainian official claimed that the attacks on Russia’s long-range radar stations aimed to reduce their ability to monitor Ukrainian military activities in southern Ukraine.
On May 26, a long-range UAV targeted the radar station near Orsk, Orenburg province, traveling over 1,700 km, making it one of the deepest strikes into Russian territory by Ukraine.
US officials stated that they sympathize with Ukraine’s current situation and are considering lifting the ban on Ukraine using US weapons to attack Russian territory. However, they warned that if Russia’s early warning capabilities are compromised, even partially, strategic stability between Moscow and Washington could be affected.
“Russia might perceive that its early warning nuclear capabilities have been degraded, which would undoubtedly be problematic,” the US official said. “People need to understand that the US never intends to use nuclear weapons against Russia, but there are concerns about Moscow perceiving that their deterrence and early warning capabilities are under attack.”
According to Dmitri Alperovitch, an expert at the Silverado Policy Accelerator, Russia might believe that the US directed Ukraine to target the early warning radar stations. “Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s nuclear deterrence facilities risk dangerous escalation with the West.”
Western experts are also puzzled by Ukraine’s choice of targets. The radar station in Krasnodar is close enough to monitor Ukraine’s missiles and UAVs, but the facility near Orsk focuses on monitoring the Middle East and Central Asia.
When asked why Ukraine targeted such a distant location, the Ukrainian official asserted that “Russia had transferred the entire capability of the radar station near Orsk to support the war effort in Ukraine.”
Following Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive last year, Russia regained the initiative on the battlefield and continued to make advances in Donetsk province. On May 10, Russian forces launched the Kharkov campaign, quickly capturing several residential areas near the border.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has increasingly conducted long-range UAV strikes on Russian territory, leading many to believe that the West has either approved or assisted these operations. About three weeks ago, Ukraine began requesting that the US lift restrictions on attacking Russian territory with US-supplied weapons.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on May 29 that the US “does not encourage or enable attacks outside of Ukraine, but Ukraine must make decisions on how best to defend itself.”
Blinken mentioned that the US “has adapted and adjusted as battlefield conditions change,” and declared that the US “will continue to do so if Russia pursues new escalation tactics.”
The US might not restrict Ukraine from using American-supplied air defense systems to shoot down missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine,” according to a US official.
However, US officials have previously expressed concerns to Ukraine about strikes on Russian territory, sometimes intervening during the planning stages.
Before the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the GUR planned an attack on Moscow, according to leaked documents from the US National Security Agency. A few days before the attack, US officials intervened, urging Ukraine to cancel the plan due to the risk of severe Russian retaliation. Kyiv subsequently abandoned the plan.
In February, US Vice President Kamala Harris advised President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine should refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, according to US officials familiar with the matter. This reportedly caused frustration for Zelensky and his senior aides.
As concerns grow with Russia’s progress on the battlefield, the US faces pressure from NATO and key European allies to allow Ukraine to use the full range and power of the weapons supplied to them.
“If we prevent Ukraine from attacking Russian forces just because they are across the border, we would significantly reduce its self-defense capabilities,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on May 27.
